正文 第八十五章 国政(2)(第2页/共3页)
“同盟条约存在的意义,就是为了在共同威胁和共同利益发生变化时,延缓盟约双方对这一变化所做出的‘背叛’反应。以免出现‘前脚共同威胁刚一消失,后脚盟友就背刺’的情况,从而让双方都可以放心地应付共同威胁。因为盟约缔结之后,两家必然会有所往来,高层武士间沾亲带故,在背叛时会有所顾忌,也会担心沾上‘背盟不义’的名声。”
“但同盟条约也只能延缓‘背叛’,绝不可能阻止‘背叛’。只要北条家这个共同威胁还在,哪怕盟约再简单,武田家和今川家就还会是盟友。如果北条家不在了,哪怕盟约写的天花乱坠,同盟也无法维系,在双方下定决心后必然破裂。武田家想着的肯定是自己在消灭北条家的过程中壮大自身,反过来压倒我们今川家,而我们考虑的也是同样的事情。所以,我们双方虽然在对抗北条家上是一致的,但是在分赃上绝对是存在矛盾的。”
“所以我不用管武田家了?”今川义元顺着太原雪斋的逻辑推出了一个简单的结论,试图证明太原雪斋所说的是不对的,“不用把它当盟友,爱怎么坑它就怎么坑它?”
“当然不行,如果你做的太过分了,小心武田家和北条家结盟,一起对付你。”太原雪斋在今川义元的脑袋上敲了个板栗。
“可北条和武田是世仇啊,怎么可能立刻结盟?”今川义元哑然失笑。
“今川和武田也是世仇啊,这不就立刻结盟了?”太原雪斋反过来直接呛了今川义元一句。
“那是因为武田左京把银杏嫁……”今川义元还想狡辩,却被太原雪斋干脆利落地打断道:
“怎么,你是觉得武田家缺女儿还是北条家缺儿子?这种东西不是要多少有多少?”
“那怎么办,我又不能把武田家当朋友,又不能不管它?”今川义元摊开手,再次放弃了思考,“这同盟困境该怎么解决?”
“同盟困境永远都不可能解决,只能在一定程度上缓和罢了。”太原雪斋似乎是走累了,又在今川义元对面坐了下来,语重心长地把自己毕生所学和体悟传授给今川义元。
“同盟困境无外乎两种,被牵连和被抛弃。弱势的一方害怕被强势的一方抛弃,所以愿意为同盟付出更多;强势的一方害怕被弱势的一方牵连进入他不想涉及的事态里,所以会减少对盟友的支持。但当弱势的一方不断付出时,也会因为卷入同盟太深,而担心被卷入强势一方的激烈冲突里,无法明哲保身;同样的,当强势的一方不断减少支持时,也会担心同盟变得脆弱、附属国离心离德,最终抛弃自己。”
“目前而言,武田家最弱,手头只有2000人;而今川家和北条家又有姻亲和几十年同盟的基础在。所以武田家肯定害怕被我们抛弃,害怕我们和北条家结盟攻击他。因此,武田家会愿意在这次谈判里为今川家做出很多,力挺我们,以避免被抛弃的风险。同时,由于他自己兵力少,即使打起来了也不会成为主力,所以他完全不担心被牵连,也不担心局势激化、不担心谈判破裂后的战争。”
“而我们今川家实力较强,同时我们是很想
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