正文 第十六章 做个假设(第2页/共3页)
视为是潜在的、未来可能会传承非遗绒花工艺的优良种子了。”
“后续的发展过程跟前头类似，许多人在买入工具并尝试制作过几次绒花便会浅尝辄止，自此满足于当前的技术水平，或是觉得绒花实在不太适合自己，转而去研究别的工艺——比方我们之前提到过的缠花、热缩，近两年兴起的掐丝珐琅，或是与配饰无关的其他玩意儿——只有为数不多的一小撮人会选择继续深造。”
“研究明白较为传统的绒花制作工艺后，接下来他们约莫会有两种截然不同但又毫不矛盾，孰先孰后都没什么问题的深造方向——其一是朝着真正能承袭好绒花技艺的、正规且专业的方向靠拢，寻找相关非遗传承人进行更系统、深入的学习。”
“其二，则是向着改良和技术、题材创新的方向进行自主探索与研究，这个方向上的产物未必足够专业，但却足够新奇有趣，能吸引到更多人了解并对绒花工艺产生兴趣，从而和以上几条合在一起，共同构成了一套完整且良性的文化传播循环。”
“这样……”许意迟若有所思，少顷拧哒着身子又往茶几那边凑了凑，“那那那，前辈，您说那个改良和创新产物本身未必足够专业的话……那这些产物，及制作出了这些绒花的手工艺人，他们还能被视为绒花技艺传承中的一部分吗？”
“还有还有，按照您这个说法的话——这么多人经过一层一层的自然筛选与淘汰挑拣下来，最后被剩下的、真正能成为正儿八经非遗传承者的人会不会太少了呀？”
“不会的，小许，你这里有个很明显的思维误区。”杨雁安摇头，“那就是，人一生的兴趣爱好并不是一成不变的。”
“起初瞧着不喜欢的东西，没准后来的哪一天就突然喜欢了；开始看着没兴趣去仔细了解的技艺，也说不定某一日就会变成自己赖以安身谋生的手艺。”
“小许，这里我还是拿‘绒花’这个刚给你讲透了的东西举例。”
“华夏目前共有十四亿人口，而网民规格则达到了1092亿，占比近乎达到了八成。”话至此处，小萝莉语调微顿，“我们假定这八成的华夏人里，约莫有一半的人曾在网上冲浪或追剧的时间，刷到过有关‘绒花’的消息，知道了华夏拥有‘绒花’这么一项非遗。”
“那么到这里，单‘绒花’一词的传播率，就从原本的‘几乎默默无名’，变成了在华夏近四**的面前‘刷了脸’，混了个‘眼熟’。”
“而在这刷到过有关‘绒花’消息的五亿五千万人里，我们再假定只有百分之一的人对绒花产生了好奇，并有意对之进行初步尝试——这就是五百五十万人。”
“剩下的步骤我们同样按照相同的比例往下换算下去——五百五十万人通过各种渠道初步了解并尝试体验了绒花的简化版制作方
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